Friday 28 January 2011 08:48, UK
England may well find themselves up against the pre-eminent team in world cricket in both formats this summer.
England may well find themselves up against the pre-eminent team in world cricket in both formats this summer. India are already, of course, top dogs in Test matches - and the likeliest byproduct of the forthcoming World Cup is that they will depose Australia as the International Cricket Council's number one team in one-day internationals too. It is a state of play which appears sure to prevail in the medium term in any case, and India merely have to cash in their potential to confirm themselves world-beaters on their home patch. Their superstar line-up has all bases covered better than anyone else - as befits a cricket-crazed country populated by more than 1.15 billion. Those basic facts and statistics dictate that the odds are stacked in the co-hosts' favour. Nonetheless, in a format dominated for so long by Australia - winners of the last three World Cups, without the help of home advantage - perhaps the biggest question mark to asterisk against India is whether the stage and occasion may yet get to them and erode their superiority. It famously has in the past, notably at the last three ICC global tournaments - the 2007 World Cup in the Caribbean, 2009 World Twenty20 in England and the 2010 staging of that same event back in the West Indies. Much soul-searching and effigy-burning has followed each of those setbacks. But even with the uncertainty of a hamstring injury hanging over the great Sachin Tendulkar, a squad peopled by Virender Sehwag, Mahendra Singh Dhoni, Gautam Gambhir, Harbhajan Singh et al is studded with match-winners at every turn. No other team can boast more than a handful, certainly not at the height of their powers - as India's best must be to stay in contention. If there is any weakness, it is minor and relative in the seam-bowling department. But notwithstanding the reinvention of that art in limited-overs cricket, the pace bowlers are less likely than any of their team-mates to be regular major players in a sub-Continental World Cup. The 2011 tournament is therefore India's to lose. If they do miss their obvious opportunity, though, which country is best-placed to take advantage? Australia are an unheard-of fifth in most bookmakers' lists, and deserve to be after two years of general regression, as well as a long list of injury worries - including over veteran captain Ricky Ponting, whose form is perhaps an even greater concern. The batting powerhouse in fact has been largely dormant, apart from Shane Watson, and it will need a collective reawakening from the Husseys and Cameron White if Australia are to defend their title again. Shock bowler Shaun Tait - along with Sri Lanka's Lasith Malinga - may be capable of bucking the predicted trend of pace as a hapless force in unhelpful conditions. Otherwise, though, it is Sri Lanka, South Africa and England who are more credible usurpers of India's birthright. Third in the rankings, by a whisker behind India, Sri Lanka have been thought capable of following up their surprise 1996 World Cup victory on each occasion since. Their all-round personnel means that is true again, and this is the first time Australia are not bankers to stand in their way. England, having won their maiden ICC trophy - the 2010 Twenty20, after 25 years of previous failure - have reason for cautious optimism. That will be centred in their famed team spirit and meticulous planning under coach Andy Flower and captain Andrew Strauss, but tempered by the spate of injuries to potentially key players during an arduous winter in Australia which has also significantly hampered their Ashes hosts. Still, it is high time Kevin Pietersen began again to justify the esteem in which he is held. He will get no better stage to restate his claims as a world-beating batsman - and if Tim Bresnan, Graeme Swann and Stuart Broad recover as expected from their injuries there is plenty of back-up nous and talent. With the bat Ian Bell and Eoin Morgan, along with an in-form Pietersen, are most likely to score at the necessary tempo. With the ball, Mike Yardy - like the West Indies' Sulieman Benn - may prove an aggravating proposition for batsmen looking for leverage to clear the ropes. Of the remaining Test-playing nations, previous over-achievers New Zealand, habitual under-achievers West Indies and the impossibly unpredictable and chaotic Pakistan belong in the second rank of feasible challengers. Behind them come Bangladesh, still developing but with enough talent and home conditions to win their share, and - much further adrift - Zimbabwe. Ireland are the obvious pick among the remaining four contenders to cause an upset, as they did more than once at the last World Cup. But South Africa, whose selection of five spin options is an imaginative gamble, have just shaded a 3-2 victory over India at home appear best-equipped of all to derail the favourites. Their batting line-up is a blend of aggressors and accumulators, who still have their place in 50-over cricket - even in a power-hitting environment like this - and much-travelled and late developing leg-spinner Imran Tahir is an intriguing new presence in an already highly-skilled bowling attack. The ICC badly need at least a smattering of signature performances from flamboyant or emerging cricketers such as Tahir. This tournament will still last seven weeks, including warm-ups, despite the organisers' acknowledgment that its much-maligned predecessor in the Caribbean suffered from a desultory schedule. If the format and conditions also conspire to provide one-dimensional slog/spinfests, those who deride 50-over cricket will have more ammunition. The optimistic forecast nonetheless is that individual and collective talent will shine through sufficiently, particularly for India.
